CME Scoreboard
Prediction for CME (2025-01-31T14:38:00-CME-001)
CME Observed Time: 2025-01-31T14:38ZiSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/36743/-1
CME Note: This CME is visible to the W/NW in STEREO A COR2 imagery, there currently is no SOHO imagery available for this CME. The source is an M6.7 flare from AR13978 (N14E43), based on SDO/AIA 131 imagery, peaking at 2025-01-31T14:06Z. Associated filament ejecta is visible in SDO/AIA 304 starting around 2025-01-31T13:51Z. Moving/opening field lines and EUV wave are also visible along the NW limb in GOES SUVI 284 starting around 2025-01-31T14:00Z.
CME was not detected at Earth.
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2025-02-04T13:00Z (-7.0h, +7.0h)
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 3.0 - 5.0
Prediction Method: WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)
Prediction Method Note:
https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/WSA-ENLIL/36745/1 Model Inputs: 2025-01-31T14:38:00-CME-001 with CME Analysis: Lon.=-43.0, Lat.=12.0, Speed=399.0, HalfAngle=38.0, Time21.5=2025-01-31T23:18Z Model Output: Earth Impact: Earth Shock Arrival Time = 2025-02-04T13:00Z (+- 7 hours) (kp)90=3 (kp)180=5 Other Location(s) Impact: Solar Orbiter with esitmated shock arrival time 2025-02-03T10:59Z Europa Clipper with esitmated shock arrival time 2025-02-05T18:00Z Mars with esitmated shock arrival time 2025-02-06T06:00Z Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250131_231800_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250131_231800_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250131_231800_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_A.gif Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250131_231800_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_A.gif Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250131_231800_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250131_231800_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Kp_timeline.gif Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250131_231800_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STA_timeline.gif Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250131_231800_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_PSP_timeline.gif Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250131_231800_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_SolO_timeline.gif Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250131_231800_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Merc_timeline.gif Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250131_231800_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Mars_timeline.gif Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250131_231800_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Lucy_timeline.gif Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250131_231800_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Bepi_timeline.gif Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250131_231800_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Venus_timeline.gif Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250131_231800_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Juice_timeline.gif Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250131_231800_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Osiris_timeline.gif Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250131_231800_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_EuropaClippr_timeline.gifLead Time: 89.87 hour(s)
Difference: -----
Prediction submitted by Chris Stubenrauch (M2M SWAO) on 2025-01-31T19:08Z
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